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Analyse

THE ONLY WAY IS UP FOR LOGISTICS DEMAND IN THE NORDICS

According to Savills, the strong consumer economy in the Nordics has led to impressive online retail sales growth. Online retail is forecast to reach a total of €22.9bn across the region in 2019, up 12% from 2018 and Forrester forecast this will grow a further 11% in 2020. Online retail sales as a proportion of total retail sales in the Nordics currently hover around the 10.7% mark (Denmark 11.3%, Sweden 10.5%, Norway 10% and Finland 11.4%) - the inflection point at which in the UK, Savills observed a rapid acceleration in occupier demand for logistics space.

Nordics ecommerce penetration rates hover around teh inflection

Mike Barnes, associate, European research, Savills, says: “Strong ecommerce fundamentals and rising trade have ultimately created more demand from operators for logistics space, lowering vacancy rates across the Nordics. On the European stage, vacancy rates in Oslo (5.2%), Stockholm (4%), Helsinki (3%) and Copenhagen (2.1%) feature among the lowest rates of the European cities as at Q3 2019.”

European logistics vacancy rate

Marcus de Minckwitz, Director, Regional Investment Advisory EMEA at Savills, says: “Investor demand for logistics space strategically located near container ports in the Baltic and North Sea including Bergen, Gothenburg and Helsinki has been resilient. Likewise, smaller distribution sites in close proximity to road and rail are likely to benefit from the inflow of goods from mainland Europe. For example, Malling & Co’s investor survey indicates that 50% of investors are looking to increase their exposure to Norwegian logistics over the next 12 months, whilst 40% will maintain current levels.

Savills Nordics Logistics Outlook


“We have seen aggressive inward yield movement for logistics space over the past 12-18 months across Europe, however the Nordics markets still appear relatively cheap compared to their European counterparts. Over the next twelve months, we expect rents to increase and yields to harden across the region.”